Lynne Taylor

Reflecting on life and spirituality

me
my blog
pastoral theologian
researcher
contact

Tag: religious affiliation

2023 Religious affiliation – the numbers

Written by Lynne on . Posted in missional, research, Uncategorised. 2 Comments

Dr Lynne Taylor
Jack Somerville Senior Lecturer in Pastoral Theology, University of Otago
Director and Researcher, AngelWings Ltd
© Lynne Taylor, 2024, www.lynnetaylor.nz  

Photo by Peter Hammer on Unsplash

The 2023 Census data on religious affiliation, released in October 2024, contains few surprises. The number and proportion of people of no religion has continued to grow, at a slower rate than previously. Overall, there has been a decline in both the number and proportion of Christians. As with other censuses, different denominations and groupings show different rates of decline, and some have grown. The number of people who stated they were “Christian” without further clarifying has continued to grow. There is a lot to explore and consider in the data, and what follows is an initial analysis of some of the numbers.

No religion

The number of people in New Zealand stating that they have no religious affiliation continues to rise, increasing from 1,663,348 in 2013 to 2,576,049 in 2023 (an increase of 58% over the decade).  This means that people of no religion now make up 52% of the New Zealand population.

While the increase between 2018 and 2023 is (at 14%) still large, the rate of increase has slowed: between 2013 to 2018 the increase had been 38%: over 2.5 times the 2018-2023 rate. At an average of 2.8% per year, the 2018 to 2023 increase is slightly more than twice the NZ population increase of 1.3% per year (averaged 2018-2023).

A similar pattern is seen for those who object to answering the religion question. This increased by 98% over the ten years, to 342,705, but most of that growth occurred in the 5 years to 2018, when there was an 81% increase. (There was a 10% increase in the 2018-2023 period.)

The number of people who said they were agnostics increased between 2018 to 2023 (by 14%, to 7434). However, the number of atheists declined (by 7%, to 6549). (Incidentally, the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster also declined, by 4.5% to 3297!)

Christian – not further defined

Of high proportional increase is the number of people who state that they are Christian, but do not further define their denominational affiliation. This population has increased at a rate considerably higher than population growth, increasing by 69% from 216,177 to 364,644 from 2013 to 2023. However, the rate of increase of this population has also slowed – from 42% in the 2013 to 2018 period to 18% in the 2018 to 2023 period. (The annualised rate of increase is 3.7% in the 2018-2023 period, down from 8.5% between 2013 and 2018.)

This continues a trend of declining importance of denominational affiliation. Now, 22.5% of those who indicate they are Christian do not name any denominational affiliation in the Census, compared with 11.5% in 2013.

Christian – denominations

The number and proportion of people naming an affiliation with most Christian denominations has declined markedly over the past ten years. Generally, this continues an expected decline, including as these populations age. The largest declining denominations are shown here:

Denomination20132023% change
Anglican459,771245,301-47%
Baptist53,49328,548-47%
Brethren nfd and Open Brethren12,8525,097-60%
Catholic492,321449,484-9%
Methodist nfd97,32041,337-58%
Presbyterian316,332179,535-43%

Also showing an overall decline are the Pentecostal groupings of churches (down 11% overall). However, individual Pentecostal ‘denominations’ show varying patterns of growth and decline. Looking at the larger groupings, some grew between 2013 and 2018 but declined to 2023 (Destiny, Elim, New Life, Vineyard). Only Assemblies of God showed sustained growth in both periods, although most of the growth occurred 2013 to 2018 (8%, cf 9% for the decade; 1% 2018-2023).

Denomination20132023% change
All Pentecostal7443966213-11%

Other groupings (with over 1000 adherents) to show sustained growth in both intercensal periods are Seventh-day Adventists (up 25% over the decade, to 18,204), Korean Christian (4,110), Reformed Baptist (195% increase to 1,152), Plymouth or Exclusive Brethren (28%, to 7,170), Churches of Christ (together all subcategories increased from 2145 in 2013 to 4203 in 2023; up 96%). Wesleyan Methodists first featured in 2018 and increased by 11% to 5,136 in 2023. Tongan Methodists showed sustained growth: from 4509 in 2013 to 12540 in 2023 (178%), with most of that growth occurring in the 2013 to 2018 period. Some other ethnic churches also showed sustained growth: Cook Island (no denomination stated), 38%; Samoan Congregational, 136%; (Methodists not elsewhere classified also grew by 207% over the ten years to 3753.)

The number of people simply calling themselves Evangelical declined by 32% to 4149, while those saying they are “born again” increased from 7917 to 29,061 over the decade (but had peaked at 33,486 in 2018). “Jesus followers” were first recorded in 2018 and increased to 2073 in 2023.

Christian – overall

Overall, the number and proportions of Christians in Aotearoa has continued to decline, but the rate of decline has been relatively stable over the decade: 1.5% per year between 2013 and 2018 and 1.4% per year between 2018 and 2023.

Altogether, 32% of New Zealanders state that they are of Christian religious affiliation – 1,620,555 people.

Māori religions

The 2023 reporting separates Māori religions, and I have not included any Māori religions or Christian denominations above. Overall, Māori religions, beliefs and philosophies have increased by 16% over the decade. An increase in Rātana is partially offset by a decline in Ringatū.

Other religions

Many other religions are growing. After Christianity, Hinduism is the largest religion, and its adherents increased by 59% in the decade from 89,085 in 2013 to 142,008 in 2023. The number of people of Islamic faith also increased, by nearly 50%, from 45,960 in 2013 to 68,538 in 2023. For context, the number of people affiliated with Hinduism and the Islamic faith (210,546) is now larger than Pentecostal, Methodist, Baptist and Brethren combined (141,195).

The number of people of New Age religions increased by 17% overall between 2013 and 2023 (to 21,540), with a higher rate of increase in the latter 5 years (1.9% per annum between 2018 and 2023, compared with 1.4% growth per annum 2013 to 2018).

Final thoughts

Overall, there is an ongoing decline in the number of people affiliated with Christianity – but much of that decline is due to people no longer naming an affiliation with a particular historically large denomination. Christians are increasingly likely to name themselves as simply that: Christian. Some smaller denominations are growing, and there continues to be growth in some ethnic groupings of churches.

More analysis is needed on all this data. The ethnic differences need to be unpacked further, as do other groupings. When available, cross tabulations with age and ethnicity will enable further analysis and insights. Watch this space!

If citing, use: Taylor, Lynne (2024) “2023 Religious Affiliation: The Numbers.” https://lynnetaylor.nz/2023-religious-affiliation-the-numbers

2018 Census Data #2

Written by Lynne on . Posted in missional, research.

The long awaiting national census data was released yesterday, and there is much to digest.
As expected, the number and proportion of people with no religion has overtaken the number and proportion of Christians. Massively.

However, as we seek to make sense of the implications, there are a few things to be aware of.

Number of Christians
Interestingly, the number of people affiliated with Christianity declined by only 6.5% from 1,858,980 in 2013 to 1,738,638 in 2018. The number of people affiliated with Maori religions, including Ratana and Ringatū, increased by 18.3% from 52,947 in 2013 to 62,638 in 2018. Taking both these categories together, the decline in numbers was just under 6%.

Question wording

It is also important to note that the wording of the Religion question changed dramatically from 2013 to 2018. In 2013, there was a tick box of options, replaced in 2018 by on open-ended question, inviting a thorough response (“Give as much detail as you need to name your religion, eg Presbyterian, Ratana …”). For Christians, the new wording was a perhaps difficult. The question, “What is your religion?” would, for many, be answered, “Christian” rather than specifying a particular denomination, but the examples provided presumed that a denominational affiliation was required. This change in wording is likely to account for some of the drop in denominational affiliation, and the concurrent increase in those who stated they were Christians, without necessarily further defining a specific denomination (the number of those who responded “Christian” was up 42%, from 216,177 in 2013 307,926 in 2018). (More on this next time.)

Everyone responded
Another key difference in 2018 was there were no reported “no responses”. When you consider that nearly 350,000 people did not respond to the question in 2013, this is a major point of difference that needs to be factored into interpretation and analysis. I need to check for sure whether it was compulsory to answer the question in the online form, but if that was the case, as I presume it was, this would likely increase the number of people selecting the “No religion” or “Object to state” boxes (and perhaps account for some of the 4,000 “Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster” affiliates!) Alternative data sources, including previous census data were used to fill gaps. (Again, I am not clear if that was just for paper-based forms, or if it was also necessary/possible on online completions.)

Data quality
Statistics NZ rated the religious affiliation variable data as high quality. Some 8% of responses were sourced from responses to the 2013 Census. While some of those respondents may have changed their religious affiliation, I reckon this is pretty accurate data. Although the pastafarian affiliation may be a little high!

So…
Proportion of Christians is definitely way down.
Actual numbers of Christians has also dropped, but less dramatically.
In 2013, 350,000 people skipped the question. Not the case in 2018. I suspect that is makes the difference between the 2013 and 2018 data larger than it would have been if people had been required to state in 2013, when they would have ticked the “object” or “no religion” box, rather than choosing one of the religious affiliations.